In Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait, Ronald N. Montaperto blames Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui for Taiwan's loss of international recognition, and states that

Canberra, Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore all mistrust Chen Shui-bian. Their unofficial economic contacts with Taipei are regarded as a price to be paid rather than an intrinsic good. Mindful as they are of China's growing comprehensive national power, they are not willing to risk ties with Beijing for the sake of Taiwan. Simultaneously, they see the U.S. presence in the region as an effective counter to China's rise.

Accordingly, maintaining the effectiveness of Washington's relations with Beijing and Taipei is a matter of the highest priority. If the U.S. can balance Chinese insistence on the One China principle against the growing separatist feeling in Taiwan, and if Washington is able to uphold the commitment to a peaceful solution, it gains strategically. To the extent that it fails to do so, it loses. The effectiveness of U.S. strategic leadership is evaluated according to how well it "manages" the Taiwan issue. If Taiwan's future becomes the issue that forces the nations of the region to choose between the U.S. and China, American management will have failed and U.S. influence will diminish.

In At Arms Length: China's Move to Further Isolate Taiwan, Willy Lam says,

While the CCP leadership may for the near term lack a casus belli for the military option, Beijing's Taiwan policy has taken a radical--and possibly violent--turn. Li, who used to head the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted the Chinese leadership was switching from a houfa zhiren posture ("winning through crafting an ingenious reaction to the enemy's ploys") to a "strike first" policy. One disturbing manifestation of this new-found aggressiveness is the revelation first made by Premier Wen Jiabao in early May that Beijing was considering a National Reunification Law (NRL).

Chinese sources say it is well-known in Taiwan-related think tanks in Beijing that legal and strategic experts under the CCP Leading Group on Taiwan Affairs (LGTA), headed by President Hu Jintao, had begun drafting a statute on reunification more than a year ago. And at least one version of the law being mooted would obligate the central government and its military forces to "use whatever means to accomplish the holy task of national reunification." The Hu-Wen leadership is still debating whether the statue should contain a "deadline," say the year 2008, by which reunification must be accomplished.

Well, I'm spooked. I'm not sure of the origin of houfa zhiren 後發制人. Maybe it's a martial arts term?