Slavish cut & paste.

Or do I mean knavish? Jim Treacher writes about a funny blog, saying

It's the kind of blog where I had originally set aside today to start getting my life back together, but now I've decided to read through his archives instead. In other words, it's another convenient excuse to avoid doing anything worthwhile with the precious time you've been given. Which you know about, because you're reading this.

Worse, I'm just quoting. And here I go again: Wayne agrees with Conrad

that the US is going to have to use tougher words (both literal and figurative) to prevent cross-strait tensions from escalating, but I think it has to go both ways. Not only do we have to show China that we'll hit them so hard it'll make their head spin if they attack Taiwan unprovoked, but we also have to tell Taiwan in no uncertain terms that if they try to unilaterally change the status quo (namely through Chen Shuibian dicking around with the ROC constitution), that Taiwan is up shitcreek on their own.

Or at least that's what basic game theory would suggest. The only problem is that I'm not sure that the US can credibly guarantee that they won't defend Taiwan if Taiwan goes ahead and violates their promise not to change the status quo unilaterally. If Chen Shuibian were to cross the line, it would still be in the US's interest to prevent the PRC from seizing Taiwan if only because the PRC would gain greater control of the South China Sea.

Yep. For the record, I have no objection to Taiwan's becoming independent (or Texas', for that matter; I believe in self-determination). In other circumstances I would say morally, it's their choice. The long period of Japanese colonialism followed on its heels by Kuomintang governance alienated or gave rise to sense of disconnect among a lot of the earlier immigrants to Taiwan, something the pro-independence people have played on to stoke their anti-mainlander populism. But unfortunately, the Chinese commies have cultivated a kind of populism, too, staking their legitimacy on eventual reunification. Their moribund propaganda still paints the Americans as supporting Taiwan not because of any belief in democracy, but rather as a part of a nefarious plot to hurt China. Even if Chen doesn't actually declare independence, but somehow pushes them over the edge, there are definitely elements on the mainland that would love to fight. The funny thing about these two groups--that is, the rabidly unificationist commies and the rabidly pro-independence Taiwanese--is how similar they are, with their appeals to populism: a lot of Chinese (or Taiwanese) people find the idea of resisting the foreign devils (or mainlanders) more appealing than worrying about any of the domestic problems they've got with pollution, corruption, and yes, abuse of power by officials. And if Chen et al. miscalculate, it's possible the US is going to be dragged into a conflict we'd rather avoid.