Friday, June 29

Who runs the Chinese military?

As China converts its growing economic power into military muscle, a lack of transparency and a habit of secrecy pose formidable challenges in assessing the country's long-term ambitions, according to defense experts.

For foreign governments and analysts monitoring the Chinese military, one of the biggest mysteries is who is actually in charge.

Nominally, President Hu Jintao, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, the top military command body, is head of the armed forces, but there is considerable doubt among experts about the extent of the authority that he and his fellow civilian leaders exert over the 2.3 million-strong People's Liberation Army.

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Doubts about the chain of command in China were heightened in the aftermath of the PLA's successful test of an antisatellite missile on Jan. 11 when most analysts concluded that top officials from the Foreign Ministry and civilian bureaucracy were clearly in the dark about the military's plan to shoot down an obsolete weather satellite.

Despite widespread protest from the international community, it took almost two weeks before the Foreign Ministry confirmed the test.

Other analysts point to an incident in October when one of China's newest conventional submarines approached the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and its battle group in international waters off Okinawa and was only detected when it surfaced near the American ships.

U.S. officials played down the incident, but some experts questioned whether China's civilian leadership would have sanctioned what could be seen as a highly provocative move.

For some analysts, both incidents could be interpreted as a clear demonstration for Washington of China's growing military capabilities and perhaps evidence that elements in the PLA leadership were less concerned about the diplomatic consequences than their civilian counterparts.

2 comments:

Michael_p said...

I would say that Hu Jintao has a firm grip on the leadership of the PLA. Have a look at the military papers and you'll see his name everywhere. This year's National Congress will give a further indication of how strong his grip is. The two examples mentioned in this post are NOT indications that the CCP has no control over the PLA. I am sure that the CCP knew about the missile test and the only people who didn't know were the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs isn't a very important ministry. Its basic function is to deal with foreign media. The second example was a beat up by the Washington Times. I am not sure how you can connect that with a lack of control over the PLA.

pkd said...

I hope you're right. But just because Hu's name is everywhere doesn't mean he really controls it. Consider the many laws the Chinese government promulgates but fails to fairly enforce.