Some recent articles about Taiwan politics: Taiwan's President Pushes Idea of New Constitution By Tiffany Wu:

Facing a difficult election in less than six months, Chen has irked Beijing with speeches analysts see as part of a re-election ploy.

From calling Taiwan and China "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait to pushing for a referendum bill and a rewriting of the constitution, Chen is aiming to make the March 2004 polls a vote on the independence touted by his party versus reunification supported by the opposition, analysts say.

But the strategy has risks.

Washington, Taiwan's biggest ally, has warned Chen not to alter the island's ambiguous political status and China has criticized him for creating tensions across the Strait.

...

While the Nationalists are generally regarded as being better placed to negotiate stronger business ties with China, pro-independence supporters accuse them of selling out Taiwan by being too friendly toward Beijing.

The island is bitterly split between those who favor independence and those who favor reunification, though the overwhelming majority prefers to keep the ambiguous status quo.

John Pomfret similarly writes, Taiwanese Leader Condemns Beijing, 'One China' Policy; Chen Dismisses Fears In U.S. of Rising Tension:

Weakened by a sluggish economy and record unemployment, Chen currently lags about 10 percentage points behind his challengers for the presidential election set for March 20. His calculation is that a strong reaction by Beijing would help his chances for reelection, according to a broad variety of Taiwanese analysts and senior government officials.

"The only way he can win is if he stimulates China to react," said Tim Ting, a leading pollster in Taiwan. "There will be a line somewhere and Chen will cross it." Ting and others say that China's threats -- including then-Premier Zhu Rongji's nationally televised finger-wagging, seen as a warning to Taiwanese not to vote -- on the eve of the last presidential election helped Chen win.

...

"We have a bunch of political campaigners charting the course for Taiwan," said a senior Taiwanese government official who spoke on condition of anonymity, saying he was alarmed at Chen's shift. "The only way they think Chen will be reelected is if they succeed in polarizing Taiwan."

...

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party "is increasingly being viewed as a bunch of amateurs set on destroying U.S.-China relations," said the senior government official who travels regularly to Washington. "But neither Lien Chan nor James Soong has convinced anyone that they will be any better."

John Pomfret also has an interview with Taiwan's former president Lee Teng-hui: Taiwan's Top Agitator as Bold as Ever; Popular Ex-President's Campaign for Independence Fraught With Risks:

In the interview, held mostly in Chinese, he lambasted Chinese culture. "Chinese have a strange sense of history, with their obsession with 5,000 years of their culture," he said. "When you meet an Italian, you don't see him dreaming about the greatness of Rome, do you? How can modern people have such ideas? They think that everything belongs to them, even Japan, not to mention Taiwan."

"Don't just look at the Taiwanese face and think it looks like a mainland face," he said at another point, contending that Taiwan's culture is really a unique mix of Dutch, Polynesian, Japanese and Chinese strains.

There's a grain of truth there, but not much. The Chinese strain dominates the Japanese and Polynesian, and as for the Dutch strain, he must be joking.

Update

According to Report spurs denial from Chen's aide in the pro-independence Taipei Times by Chang Yun-Ping:

"President Chen never said that he 'would not bow to US pressure' as the two countries have mutual concerns on certain issues; Taiwan would also be concerned about the US tilting its stance toward China," Presidential Office spokesman James Huang (黃志芳) said.

"Concern is not the same as pressure. Being concerned doesn't mean that you're going to get involved in another nation's domestic affairs.

So they're trying to say that Chen meant that he would not bow to US concern, and that the US shouldn't "get involved".

Huang yesterday said that when Pomfret asked Chen whether the holding of referendums, rewriting the Constitution and adding Taiwan to the cover of passports were part of a strategy to anger Beijing and boost his chances of getting re-elected, the president replied that "such thinking was incorrect and meaningless."

"The president said these moves were based on improving the development of the nation's constitutional system and public convenience. The president emphasized that pushing these democratic reforms has nothing to do with the issues of independence or unification. So the things the US is concerned about won't happen," Huang said.

Chen looks like he wants it both ways. He curries favor with the pro-independence people by pushing reforms that suggest independence both to them and the PRC, but then claims it won't upset the PRC.
I hope he can guarantee that. (link via A better tomorrow)