Hu's Mishandling Of The North Korean Crisis

By Willy Lam

Beijing, in particular President Hu Jintao, has emerged as a loser in the latest episode of missile and nuclear brinkmanship orchestrated by Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. In spite of the billions of dollars in aid that Beijing has poured into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), China has again demonstrated that it is incapable of controlling its errant client state. Furthermore, the heavy-handed manner with which Chinese diplomats prevented the UN Security Council from imposing economic and military sanctions on the Hermit Kingdom has almost guaranteed that Pyongyang will only continue to create trouble for the global community...

Chinese diplomats have always defended their actions, or lack thereof, by arguing that Beijing's influence over Pyongyang is limited. This, however, could not be futher from the truth. Observers of North Korea will remember that when Beijing turned off oil supplies to the DPRK for three days in early 2003, Pyongyang took notice and made concessions, if only token ones, that included an agreement to join the Six Party Talks. Beijing's most recent refusal to even reprimand the DPRK in public has weakened its claim of being a "responsible stakeholder" in the international community. Indeed, more officials and analysts in the West have gravitated to the view that instead of being a crucial broker in solving the DPRK conundrum, Beijing's duplicitous stance is part of the problem.

Hu's to Blame

...Long-time Hu watchers in Beijing have attributed Hu's pro-Pyongyang posture to two related reasons. One is the institutional bias of president and Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman's tendency to side with military hawks particularly regarding foreign policy toward the U.S., Japan and Korea. This may be due to the CMC chief's need to secure the backing of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) top brass in the run-up to the crucial CCP 17th Party Congress next year. The other reason is that by temperament, Hu, an unabashed disciple of Chairman Mao Zedong's, shares the "pro-Russian" and "pro-DPRK" proclivities of the CCP conservatives....

Apart from undermining China's status as a diplomatic broker and peacemaker, Kim's antics have also presented a god-sent excuse for Japan to beef up its defense forces...