Wednesday, October 12

Religion isn't necessarily the problem

Nassim Taleb finds opposition to teaching religious ideas in schools "somewhat misplaced", criticizing instead what he calls "the opiates of the middle class" and criticizes the gullible fool who invests in the stock market.
...he does not realize that the manager of his mutual fund does not fare better than chance — actually a bit worse, after the (generous) fees. Nor does he realize that markets are far more random and far riskier that he is being made to believe by the high priests of the brokerage industry.
But what about index funds? They've got low fees, and do better than average. Long term, an investment in a basket of stocks will outperform other investments. The problem is many people are too afraid to invest anything in stocks, or put their money all in one company, or buy high and sell low.

Taleb also criticizes the "fool" who
...believes in the news media providing an accurate representation of the risks in the world. They don't. By what I call the narrative fallacy, the media distorts our mental map of the world by feeding us what can be made into a story that can be squeezed into our minds. For instance (preventable) cancer, not terrorism remains the greatest danger. The number of persons killed by hurricanes, while consequential, is dwarfed by that of the thousands of isolated daily victims dying in hospital beds. These are not story-worthy, implying; the absence of attention on the part of the press maps into disproportionately reduced resources allocated to their welfare. The difference between actual, actuarially defined risks and the perception of dangers is enormous — and, sadly, growing with the globalization and the media, and our increased vulnerability to visual stimuli.

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