Sunday, March 21

Bloomberg's George Hsu reports,
The apparent assassination attempt on the president Friday triggered national security measures that included activating more police and servicemen. As a result, at least 200,000 police and servicemen were deprived of their right to vote, the Nationalist Party said in a statement.
Also,
The U.S., Taiwan's chief military protector, urged calm in resolving the election dispute.

"It's very significant that up to now, Chen hasn't got a congratulatory note from the U.S.," said Bruce Gale, a political analyst at Hill & Associates Ltd. in Singapore. "That means the U.S. is standing back. They are not giving him their blessing, so he's going to have to earn it. He's going to have to say 'I'm a team player here and I'm not going to rock the boat.'"
George Wehrfritz writes,
...even if Chen's victory is upheld in the courts, he faces a decidedly constrained future. The referendum he had called to boost Taiwan's defenses in reaction to a Chinese missile buildup—irking both Washington and Beijing—failed to pass. And, as George W. Bush did in 2000, he now faces an electorate split down the middle, with half questioning his legitimacy as national leader...

Chen triumphed by less than 30,000 votes—out of more than 13 million cast—a victory margin of just 0.24 percent. Some 337,000 ballots were declared invalid for still-unclear reasons, a suspiciously high number and the basis for the KMT's court challenge...

Most analysts think Chinese leaders will initially continue to try to undermine Chen by refusing to engage him, as they have done since 2000. "Deadlock will mean procrastination on the China issue," says S. H. Lo, a political scientist at the University of Hong Kong. Establishment of direct transport links "will be delayed for the medium term," he adds, while "[harsh] rhetoric and verbal attacks will continue for some time to come."

Similarly, Taiwan's own political culture is likely to turn more venomous. The Taiwanese people have been polarized in recent years by the issue of identity, which pits Taiwanese nationalists in the DPP against KMT supporters who identify themselves as Chinese...

The KMT's legal challenge puts the election in the hands of judges, who must rule in time for a new president to be inaugurated on May 20. Some experts see the suit as a desperate act of self-preservation on Lien's part, and question the stridency of —his response. "I think he has demonstrated that he's not a leader and shouldn't be in government," says Australian Taiwan specialist Bruce Jacobs of Monash University in Melbourne. Lien's aim, he adds, is to galvanize his fragile coalition by portraying the DPP victory as illegitimate, shifting blame for the loss from his own shoulders...

At some point, though, the narrow interests of coalition partners Lien and Soong could clash with those of their younger comrades. Analysts say that the next generation has greater incentive to focus on rebuilding the KMT than on dragging out the election. Cracks in the KMT-led alliance are already appearing. When Lien moved to declare the election results invalid, his own campaign manager Ma, Taipei's popular mayor, kept silent. Another younger party man, lawmaker Wang Jyng-ping, was not onstage at the rally. Both Ma and Wang represent moderate groups within the KMT that are likely to oppose any strategy seen as weakening democracy on Taiwan. "I don't think they'll be deeply sympathetic," says Jacobs. "The party could fall apart over this, or the younger guys could step in and fix it up by instituting real reform."...

Even if the courts rule the election results valid, the furor is sure to be rekindled as key legislative elections scheduled for December approach. In the meantime, the conspiracy theories surrounding the assassination attempt made on Chen and Lu will only grow more elaborate, unless the crime is solved to the public's satisfaction. Investigators are exploring an intriguing, if bizarre, theory: that gangsters who had wagered on Lien sought to win by killing the president. If so, they achieved just the opposite, handing Chen a narrow victory. At what price, Taiwan is now going to find out.
Michael Kramer of Reuters writes,
After the attack, Chen activated a national security protocol, meaning 200,000 military and police -- traditionally Nationalist supporters -- could not vote.
Asia Pacific News notes,
Conspiracy theorists have pointed to the fact he bypassed other major hospitals on the way to the Chi Mei, that little information was made available shortly after the attack and its timing, hours before the election...

Hwang Kwang-kuo, a respected professor who teaches social psychology at National Taiwan University, said the police investigation would be crucial to Chen's legitimacy.

"I think the investigation of the incident is very, very important because the series of events in this election violates the process of justice.

"I feel that the lack of news about the gunman means police are not trying hard enough to uncover a suspect.

"If the clouds are not clear, people will suspect someone is manipulating the outcome of the election.

Hwang said his doubts about the shooting were mainly because it took place in Chen's home county, where the DPP leader won almost 65 percent in Saturday's vote compared with just 54 percent four years ago.
Dirk Beveridge of the Associated Press, cited at the pro-DPP eTaiwan news, says,
An opposition lawmaker was already asking why President Chen Shui-bian had been taken to a hospital more than 5 kilometers from the shooting site in Chen's hometown of Tainan and not rushed to the nearest facility.

The lawmaker, Sisy Chen, also raised questions about a bullet slug that was found, claiming it did not match a shell casing that was recovered as she suggested that the shooting seemed suspicious. Police said the shells and casings matched, but it was not immediately clear if they had come from the same gun...

Sisy Chen - a defector from President Chen's party who is now an outspoken foe - also noted that his security detail had visited the shooting scene and the hospital beforehand...

One theory being floated had a distinctively Taiwanese twist: That the shooting was carried out by gangsters who placed big bets on the election and wanted to tilt the outcome by creating a sympathy vote for Chen.

Taiwan has a vast but illegal gambling industry and millions of dollars had been placed on the outcome of yesterday's race that was viewed as extremely close...

A former head of Taiwan's presidential bodyguard corps appeared on television and criticized what he called lax security, saying those protecting Chen should have been positioned to block any shots.

And how would it be that a would-be assassin or assassins could get close enough to the nation's top two political leaders to hit both of them, yet miss badly enough to leave both with superficial wounds that barely slowed them down?
3q2u mentions "video footage of 6 year olds voting."

And someone said something about Chen Shui-bian claiming several years ago that his IV had been poisoned by the KMT (I've lost the link and can't find it). Not that they didn't do some nasty things in the old days, but still....

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