One day after President Bush stood next to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and bluntly warned Chen against moving Taiwan toward independence, the island of 23 million appeared to be less in shock than in denial. There was little sense of crisis and no sign the warning had hurt Chen's popularity or altered his plans to hold a referendum in March demanding that China remove hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan.
Democrats Criticize Bush for Blunt Taiwan Rebuke:
"It's easy to see how Chen could choose to believe that he'd have unequivocal support in Washington no matter what he did," said China expert Michael McDevitt, a retired navy admiral now with the Center for Naval Analysis, a thinktank.
"Chen misread the United States. He miscalculated how far he could go and how it would be perceived here," he said.
Taiwan said Bush's comments did not signal a change in U.S. policy and Chen vowed to hold a referendum anyway.
In the U.S. view, Chen, desperate to win a tight re-election campaign, wants Beijing to overreact.
"Then, in his thinking, he gets the United States to come down on China (and Chen) gets to portray himself as the guy who has the dependable backing of the United States and who is standing up to the thugs on the mainland," one expert said.
Similarly, in Taiwan's Strategic Miscalculation By JOSEPH KAHN:
China views the Taiwan problem as fueled, at least partly, by the volatility of the American political system. Presidents frequently come into office vowing to lend a hand to beleaguered democrats in Taiwan, then gradually back away when they encounter geopolitical realities in Asia, where China is emerging as the dominant power.
Beijing is concerned that the cycle repeats itself so often that it allows Taiwan to keep testing how far it can move toward a more legal form of independence rather than the de facto independence it enjoys today.
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