It's possible for China simultaneously to torture people and enrich them. (They attach electrodes to my scrotum & nipples, so I say "hit me", and they crank up the current, then give me $100 bucks, so I say "hit me again", so they crank up the current, then give me $100 bucks, so I say "hit me again", so they....) Anyway, the line is Nicholas Kristof's. Joking aside, China's problem looks to be the banking crisis and unemployment, but the one he doesn't mention is corruption. So for the nonce, I don't think we have to be worried about getting "blindsided". But let's face it, there's no rulebook that says we get to stay #1 forever. But he does include this gem (italics mine):

These inland rural areas lag behind the coastal regions, and so the income gaps are growing. But lives are unmistakably getting better almost everywhere. (The only exception I saw was Henan Province, where AIDS is impoverishing villages.) Partly gains come because peasants in villages like Gaoshan go south to work in those sweatshops denounced by American students but treasured by Chinese workers.