In Heading Off the Next War, David M. Lampton and Kenneth Lieberthal argue,
"Chen apparently believes that China's threat to use force is a bluff and that the U.S. commitment to back Taiwan militarily is unrestricted -- the logic being that a democratic America and a supportive U.S. Congress would back Taipei no matter what sparked a conflict.
"Chen and his predecessor Lee Teng-hui have been so sure of U.S. support that defense spending on the island has continually declined over the past 12 years. But Chen's two assumptions are flawed, and they could well lead him to take actions that precipitate war." They call for "establishing a stable framework across the strait", including "Taiwan can continue to assert during the decades-long period covered by the agreement that it is an "independent, sovereign country," but it must abjure additional steps to turn this island-wide sensibility into a juridical fact. Beijing can continue to assert that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of it, but it must give up its threat to use military force to change Taiwan's status." Sounds nice, but I don't see China giving up its threats.