Thursday, July 10

ERIK ECKHOLM's Hong Kong Bombshell for Beijing
As it seeks to contain the fallout from a political fiasco in its cherished "special administrative region" of Hong Kong, the Chinese government has been uncharacteristically tongue-tied...

"This has been a big shock for China's leaders," said Chu Shulong, a political scientist at Qinghua University here. "They think China has done a lot for Hong Kong, but now they see that even after all these years a lot of the people don't like Tung, don't like the Hong Kong government and don't like the government in Beijing."...

One reason for this official silence is that Chinese leaders are anxious to sustain the notion that Hong Kong, since its formal return to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, enjoys autonomy over its internal affairs.

The Chinese are having special difficulty articulating a policy now, political experts say, because the events have challenged some of their most hallowed political tenets.

The return of Hong Kong to the motherland is regarded here as one of the great national victories of the modern era; that its residents will thrive and be contented under the promised "one country, two systems" formula is repeated on the mainland as an article of faith.

But the angry debate over the proposed security laws has exposed the inherent weakness of the formula: what happens when vital interests, as perceived in Beijing and Hong Kong, conflict? No one pretends that in a crunch, Beijing's needs would not prevail.

If the anti-Tung movement gains enough force, Beijing's leaders may face an unpleasant choice between allowing a mass movement to usurp their plans for Hong Kong, or pulling strings on the island far more openly than they want to.

"One country, two systems" is also the principle under which China is pursuing its overriding foreign policy objective, the return of Taiwan to mainland sovereignty.

Though Beijing has offered Taiwan even greater autonomy than it gave Hong Kong, people on Taiwan have always been deeply suspicious of how union with the mainland would affect their self-rule. That skepticism has only been strengthened by the current conflict in Hong Kong and the specter of a popular uprising against a leader seen as too solicitous of Beijing...

Asked whether Beijing's support of Mr. Tung had been shaken by his clear lack of popularity, Mr. Kong said only that it would be inappropriate for the Foreign Ministry to comment on Hong Kong's internal affairs.

Funniest thing I've seen in a long time. I had earlier wondered about what the return of Hong Kong to the "motherland" would do for the Chinese. It's turning out to be a poison pill, isn't it?

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